Mar 5, 2006 1100 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 5 07:49:35 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060305 1100 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20060305 1100 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 050747
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 AM CST SUN MAR 05 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT UPPER LEVELS TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH
   CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE ERN CONUS...WHILE WRN TROUGH --
   COMPRISED OF SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE PIECES -- PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS
   THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD
   SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD WITH TIME ACROSS KS/OK.  AHEAD OF THIS LOW...BROAD
   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY
   INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END
   OF THE PERIOD.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
   ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MO VALLEY REGION.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD
   CONTINUE/SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE DAY COINCIDENT WITH ZONE OF WARM
   ADVECTION...WITH SOME DIURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING
   THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT INSTABILITY
   SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...SUGGESTING ONLY A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AT
   BEST.  
   
   FURTHER W...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
   THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD IN CONJUNCTION WITH EWD-MOVING MEAN
   TROUGH.  LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED ATTM SUGGESTS
   LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/05/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z