Mar 5, 2006 1100 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Updated: Sun Mar 5 07:49:35 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
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SPC AC 050747 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0147 AM CST SUN MAR 05 2006 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT UPPER LEVELS TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE ERN CONUS...WHILE WRN TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE PIECES -- PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD WITH TIME ACROSS KS/OK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...BROAD LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MO VALLEY REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE/SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE DAY COINCIDENT WITH ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION...WITH SOME DIURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...SUGGESTING ONLY A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AT BEST. FURTHER W...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD IN CONJUNCTION WITH EWD-MOVING MEAN TROUGH. LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED ATTM SUGGESTS LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 03/05/2006 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z |