Mar 29, 2006 1100 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Updated: Wed Mar 29 08:07:36 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
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SPC AC 290806 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 AM CST WED MAR 29 2006 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS TN TO OH/PA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD. STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW NOW OVER NRN CA SHOULD DEEPEN OVER GREAT PLAINS THROUGH DAY-2 THEN FILL/DEAMPLIFY SLOWLY AS IT CROSSES GREAT LAKES REGION DURING DAY-3. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE EWD OVER OH VALLEY REGION...WITH TRAILING PORTION BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY OVER CENTRAL/NRN TX. SEVERAL PROGS INDICATE WEAK SRN STREAM PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SUBTROPICAL N-CENTRAL PACIFIC -- MAY MOVE NEWD ACROSS NWRN MEX AND WRN TX...THROUGH LARGER SCALE RIDGE LEFT BEHIND IN WAKE OF LOW MOVING OVER GREAT LAKES. ...GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY... BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT 31/12Z...FROM NEAR LM SWD ACROSS PORTIONS IL/INDIANA TO ARKLATEX REGION. NARROW CORRIDOR OF DESTABILIZATION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY DURING MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SFC HEATING...BOOSTING SBCAPE AND AIDING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE...PARTICULARLY FROM TN NWD UNDER STRONGEST MIDLEVEL FLOW GRADIENTS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 01/00Z AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO LESS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES. ...SRN PLAINS... TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING INVOF TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE...ALONG AND E OF ITS INTERSECTION WITH DRYLINE. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS SUPPORTED BY LIKELIHOOD OF STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT NEAR FRONT. EXPECT VERTICAL SHEAR TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MRGL MIDLEVEL WINDS...BENEATH SYNOPTIC RIDGING. SRN STREAM PERTURBATION MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION ALOFT...AS WELL AS CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR TRIPLE POINT. CONVECTION MAY BE SUPPORTED AFTER DARK BY FAVORABLY MOIST AND STRENGTHENING LLJ...DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND SYNOPTIC RIDGE. ..EDWARDS.. 03/29/2006 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z |