SPC AC 160708
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID AND LOWER MO
   VALLEY SWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN LOW PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY THREE PERIOD WILL BE
   INTENSIFYING MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS.  INITIAL
   SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO OCCLUSION TUESDAY OVER THE NRN
   PLAINS AS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES A NEAR EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC
   STATE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
   AND UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH A MORE SELY SURGE THROUGH THE CNTRL INTO
   SRN PLAINS AND EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
   DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WHERE THIS COLD FRONT INTERSECTS WARM
   FRONT LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER MO VALLEY AND OH
   VALLEY.
   
   ...MID/LOWER MO VALLEY INTO SRN LOW PLAINS...
   
   DESPITE DIFFERING NWP SOLUTIONS ON EVENTUAL TRACKS OF MID-LEVEL AND
   SURFACE LOWS...AND MOVEMENT OF STRONG COLD FRONT...IT APPEARS THAT
   TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PERIOD.
   
   MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR OR
   SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THAT OF SATURDAY/S --4/15-- WARM SECTOR OVER
   ROUGHLY THE SAME GEOGRAPHICAL AREA.  THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON FROM THE SRN LOW PLAINS NWD INTO THE
   LOWER MO VALLEY.  STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER LOW
   COMBINED WITH STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS
   STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON OVER THE MID MO VALLEY...WITH
   ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG DRY LINE OR COLD FRONT INTO
   ERN KS/WRN MO...PERHAPS AS FAR S AS NERN OK AND NWRN AR.
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
   INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AS MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDS TROUGH BASE. 
   THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT SPREADING EWD TOWARD THE
   MS RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/16/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z