May 8, 2006 1100 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon May 8 07:29:37 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060508 1100 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20060508 1100 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 080727
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CDT MON MAY 08 2006
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN TX
   NEWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING NCNTRL U.S.
   UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING EWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE
   GRTLKS AND OH VLY MID-WEEK.  TO THE S...A WEAKER SRN STREAM
   IMPULSE...CURRENTLY LINGERING ACROSS WRN MEXICO...WILL EJECT EWD
   TOWARD SRN TX. AT THE SFC...PRIMARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS...LWR OH VLY AND THE
   MID-SOUTH THROUGH WED EVENING...WITH THE WRN END SLOWING ACROSS
   CNTRL/SRN TX AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...MID-SOUTH INTO SERN TX...
   A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO
   CONVECTIVE EVOLUTIONS. ONE OR MORE MCS/S SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY
   WED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH OR OZARKS.  THIS MAY AUGMENT
   CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES THAT COULD PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL
   TSTMS DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY.  ERN EDGE
   OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE DEEP S THE
   NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE REGION SHOULD RESIDE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF
   40-50 KTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT A FEW ORGANIZED
   SEVERE TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...THOUGH TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION
   ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ATTM.
   
   FARTHER SW...THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE NEAR/ACROSS
   CNTRL/SRN TX DURING WED AFTN.  THOUGH THE EML SHOULD PROVIDE A
   STRONG CAP...BOUNDARY LAYER MAY HEAT SUFFICIENTLY TO ERASE CINH AND
   LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLD STORM POSSIBILITIES ALONG CONVECTIVE
   BOUNDARIES AND/OR THE DRYLINE. MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES AND AT
   LEAST 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
   SEVERE STORMS...THUS THE CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME STRONGER OVER
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WED AFTN.  MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH
   STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD PROVE
   FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS ERN NM.
   
   ...OH VLY...
   PRIMARY LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROUGH WILL
   SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING WED AFTN.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   WILL ADVECT NWD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LAPSE RATES SHOULD
   REMAIN WEAK OWING TO RESIDUAL CLOUDS/PCPN.  HOWEVER...ISOLD STRONG
   STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/08/2006
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z