May 8, 2006 1100 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Updated: Mon May 8 07:29:37 UTC 2006 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
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SPC AC 080727 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 AM CDT MON MAY 08 2006 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN TX NEWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SYNOPSIS... PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING NCNTRL U.S. UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING EWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GRTLKS AND OH VLY MID-WEEK. TO THE S...A WEAKER SRN STREAM IMPULSE...CURRENTLY LINGERING ACROSS WRN MEXICO...WILL EJECT EWD TOWARD SRN TX. AT THE SFC...PRIMARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL GRTLKS...LWR OH VLY AND THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH WED EVENING...WITH THE WRN END SLOWING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...MID-SOUTH INTO SERN TX... A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTIONS. ONE OR MORE MCS/S SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY WED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH OR OZARKS. THIS MAY AUGMENT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES THAT COULD PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY. ERN EDGE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE DEEP S THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE REGION SHOULD RESIDE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF 40-50 KTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...THOUGH TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ATTM. FARTHER SW...THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE NEAR/ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX DURING WED AFTN. THOUGH THE EML SHOULD PROVIDE A STRONG CAP...BOUNDARY LAYER MAY HEAT SUFFICIENTLY TO ERASE CINH AND LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLD STORM POSSIBILITIES ALONG CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND/OR THE DRYLINE. MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...THUS THE CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME STRONGER OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WED AFTN. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS ERN NM. ...OH VLY... PRIMARY LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING WED AFTN. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN WEAK OWING TO RESIDUAL CLOUDS/PCPN. HOWEVER...ISOLD STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY. ..RACY.. 05/08/2006 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z |