SPC AC 090733
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING NWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES DAY3 AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFIES. EVEN AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVER WY IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION AS PRESSURES
BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. ANY BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
SHOULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE BROAD
UPSLOPE/CONVERGENT PATTERN WILL AID THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
STRONGLY DIURNAL IN NATURE DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROFILES.
...MO TO CAROLINAS...
SFC FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SRN MO SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER SEWD SURGE
EXPECTED INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE.
THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY AID SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WHILE VERY WARM AIR
ALOFT LIKELY WILL SUPPRESS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS. PLACEMENT OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DAY2 CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES WILL REQUIRE LOW
PROBABILITIES INITIALLY. LATER OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
CONVECTION.
..DARROW.. 06/09/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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