SPC AC 120731
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
PACIFIC NW TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES DURING
THE DAY3 PERIOD SHUNTING DOMINANT PLAINS RIDGE EWD TOWARD THE NRN MS
VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...SFC CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE LEE
OF THE NRN ROCKIES OVER THE PLAINS OF MT. WITH DEEPENING SWLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SRN MT MOUNTAINS...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD
OCCUR NEAR SFC WIND SHIFT ENHANCING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS BIMODAL
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS POSSIBLE...THE FIRST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS BENEATH EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER AREA OF POTENTIAL
STRONG CONVECTION MAY OCCUR DOWNSTREAM WITHIN PERSISTENT WARM
ADVECTION ZONE OVER PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS. THIS SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE
AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AIRMASS TO BE SOMEWHAT CAPPED. ANY STORMS
THAT EVOLVE ACROSS THE PLAINS OF MT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD TOWARD SRN
SASKATCHEWAN AND WRN ND. SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH MCS EVOLUTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE BY MID EVENING
AS LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS.
..DARROW.. 06/12/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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