SPC AC 090730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN JUL 09 2006
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGEST BELT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA TO NRN QUEBEC. MID LEVEL TROUGHS REMAINING JUST
SOUTH OF THIS STRONGER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DISCREPANCIES IN THE OVERALL STRENGTH/
AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE IS AGREEMENT IN THE
TRACK/TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE WRN
AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION.
...ERN KS/NEB TO SWRN WI/NWRN IL...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO IA WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG SWLY LLJ AXIS AT START OF DAY 3
PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HEATING OUTSIDE OF THIS EARLY
ACTIVITY AND AWAY FROM ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY GIVEN A
MOIST WARM SECTOR /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/. NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL WINDS AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THIS OUTLOOK WILL
INTRODUCE A 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY FROM ERN KS/NEB TO NWRN IL/SWRN WI
WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG THE TRACK OF THE GREATEST MID LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH THE WEAKEST MODEL /ECMWF/ EVEN SUGGESTS TO BE 25-30 KT.
THIS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
..PETERS.. 07/09/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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