Jul 28, 2006 1100 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 28 07:39:35 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060728 1100 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20060728 1100 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 280737
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0238 AM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP
   THE BELT OF STRONGER WLYS CONFINED TO THE NRN TIER STATES. A STRONG
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
   FEATURE WILL EJECT ENEWD OVER TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE NRN
   ROCKIES AND INTO SWRN CANADA BY LATE IN THE DAY. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
   UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NERN STATES. AT THE START OF THE
   PERIOD A SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NERN STATES WWD THROUGH
   THE GREAT LAKES TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS. WRN PORTIONS
   OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY LIFT SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM FRONT...WHILE THE ERN
   PORTION SETTLES SLOWLY SWD.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA...
   
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY WITHIN
   WARM ADVECTION ZONE IN VICINITY OF FRONT AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH THE BELT OF
   STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITH 40 TO 50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED FROM
   NRN MN...NRN WI INTO PARTS OF UPPER MI. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY. THE EWD
   ADVECTION OF 850 TO 700 MB LAYER WARM AIR PLUME AND POTENTIAL FOR
   BUILDING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE. THIS AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO A HIGHER RISK CATEGORY ONCE
   THESE CONCERNS HAVE BEEN MITIGATED.
   
   
   ....NERN U.S....
   
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN VICINITY OF
   SURFACE FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER PARTS OF THE NERN
   STATES. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS AND SPREAD SEWD
   UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. MODEST VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY MULTICELLS. POTENTIAL
   WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER
   STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/28/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z