SPC AC 280737
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 AM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP
THE BELT OF STRONGER WLYS CONFINED TO THE NRN TIER STATES. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL EJECT ENEWD OVER TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES AND INTO SWRN CANADA BY LATE IN THE DAY. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NERN STATES. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD A SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NERN STATES WWD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS. WRN PORTIONS
OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY LIFT SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM FRONT...WHILE THE ERN
PORTION SETTLES SLOWLY SWD.
...UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA...
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY WITHIN
WARM ADVECTION ZONE IN VICINITY OF FRONT AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH THE BELT OF
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITH 40 TO 50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED FROM
NRN MN...NRN WI INTO PARTS OF UPPER MI. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY. THE EWD
ADVECTION OF 850 TO 700 MB LAYER WARM AIR PLUME AND POTENTIAL FOR
BUILDING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. THIS AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO A HIGHER RISK CATEGORY ONCE
THESE CONCERNS HAVE BEEN MITIGATED.
....NERN U.S....
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN VICINITY OF
SURFACE FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER PARTS OF THE NERN
STATES. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS AND SPREAD SEWD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. MODEST VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY MULTICELLS. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..DIAL.. 07/28/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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