SPC AC 040722
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT FRI AUG 04 2006
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER NRN QUARTER OF
CONUS...WHILE HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS PACIFIC COAST IN RESPONSE TO
SLOWLY APCHG MID/UPPER TROUGH. SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW
APPARENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PORTIONS BC -- IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ESEWD THEN EWD DURING DAYS 1-2. RESULTANT
STRONG PERTURBATION -- PERHAPS MANIFEST AS CLOSED LOW -- SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY EWD OR ENEWD ACROSS NRN ONT INTO WRN QUE DURING THIS PERIOD.
SREF AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE BUT NOT AMPLITUDE. THIS WILL INFLUENCE
STRENGTH/POSITIONING OF ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT...FOR WHICH PROGS
VARY SUBSTANTIALLY IN POSITION AT 7/00Z. FRONT GENERALLY SHOULD
MOVE SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS GREAT LAKES AND MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY...TRAILING WSWWD TOWARD CO.
...GREAT LAKES TO IA/MO...
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF SFC FRONT MAINLY DURING AFTERNOON...WITH AT
LEAST MRGL POTENTIAL FOR SVR GUSTS AND/OR HAIL. PRIND STRONGEST
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC SUPPORT FOR SVR WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS LOWER MI AND ONT -- DISPLACED NE OF MOST FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL HEATING/MOISTURE INVOF MID MS VALLEY REGION.
THEREFORE...ONLY MRGL/CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES ASSIGNED ATTM IN
CORRIDOR ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. MORE TIGHTLY FOCUSED AREA OF LARGER
PROBABILITIES MAY BE USED IN UPCOMING OUTLOOKS ONCE CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN AFTERNOON FRONTAL PLACEMENT/TIMING...AND MESOSCALE
DETAILS.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/FOOTHILLS...
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FROM COMBINATION OF POSTFRONTAL MOIST
ADVECTION AND SFC HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN OF ROCKIES...FOOTHILLS
AND EWD EXTENDING RIDGES. ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED
BY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT
HEATING. HOWEVER WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
WIND/HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS.
...S FL AND KEYS...
UNCERTAINTIES RELEVANT TO TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAIN TOO HIGH TO
ASSIGN SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM...BUT THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED IN
SUCCEEDING OUTLOOKS FOR ANY SUCH THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN
PERIPHERY OF TS CHRIS...GIVEN LATEST OFFICIAL FCST PATH AS OF THIS
WRITING. REF NHC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC FOR LATEST
TRACK/INTENSITY FCSTS FOR THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
..EDWARDS.. 08/04/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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