SPC AC 180720
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT MON SEP 18 2006
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SPEED/EVOLUTION OF
UPPER LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY
LATE DAY3. A WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED FOCUSED ZONE
OF ASCENT WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...INDUCING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER NERN CO BY 21/00Z. LARGE SCALE RESPONSE TO THIS
FEATURE WILL BE DECIDED AS LLJ STRENGTHENS MARKEDLY ACROSS THE
SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...INDUCING STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER KS/NEB INTO
WRN IA/MO BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE RELUCTANCE OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SUSTAINED LIFT/MOISTENING ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER DARK WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION...BUT CLOUD LAYER INSTABILITY WILL PROVE TOO WEAK TO
WARRANT ANY PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
..DARROW.. 09/18/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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