SPC AC 050707
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CST SUN NOV 05 2006
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
AND SERN U.S. TUESDAY...REACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALONG SRN BRANCH OF THIS FEATURE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AMPLIFY THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SERN STATES...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AMPLIFIED AND LEAST PROGRESSIVE. THE NAM MAINTAINS AND OPEN WAVE AND
IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. ACCORDINGLY...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST
IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SERN U.S.
DURING THE DAY AS WELL AS SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE CAROLINA
COASTS TUESDAY NIGHT.
...NERN GULF COASTAL AREA THROUGH NWRN FL...
THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN A
STRONGER SLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT AND RICHER MOISTURE ADVECTING
FARTHER INLAND ALONG THE NERN GULF COAST. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THESE
SOLUTIONS...LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG/PERSISTENT. WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST INLAND OF THE COAST. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES
DOWNSTREAM FROM EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY.
IF SURFACE HEATING CAN DEVELOP...SOME POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. AT THIS TIME ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT INTRODUCING ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
...NC COAST...
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COASTS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS NEAR AND JUST N OF THE
SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR THE DEEPER
CONVECTION TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ALONG THE GULF STREAM WATERS WITH
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION INLAND.
..DIAL.. 11/05/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
|
