SPC AC 060755
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 AM CST MON NOV 06 2006
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE SERN STATES TUESDAY WILL
CONTINUE EAST...REACHING THE GULF STREAM AREA ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
MAY OCCUR OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS AS ASCENT WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT
REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET OVERTAKES COASTAL BOUNDARY.
...CAROLINA COASTS...
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE N OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE COASTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING NWWD. A SMALL WARM SECTOR COULD
DEVELOP INLAND...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NERN SC COAST NWD INTO THE NC
COASTAL AREA. THE WWD ADVECTION OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT
IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL LIKELY ALREADY BE ONGOING OVER MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS
AND WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. NEVERTHELESS...LARGE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS MAY EXIST IN VICINITY OF RETREATING BOUNDARY...AND IF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP INLAND...THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS
WILL EXIST. WILL INTRODUCE ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME DUE
TO POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS ON THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AS
WELL AS UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE LOCATION AND DEGREE OF COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS.
...GA...
A COLD THERMAL TROUGH WITH -18 TO -20 C AT 500 MB ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A POCKET OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES FORECAST ACROSS GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME SURFACE HEATING
COULD DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
..DIAL.. 11/06/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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