SPC AC 270555
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST SUN NOV 26 2006
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
EWD PROGRESSION OF FULL LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
GREAT PLAINS IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY THREE PERIOD WITH SOME MODEL
VARIANCE IN HANDLING OF SRN STREAM IMPULSE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
IN THE LOW-LEVELS...STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY...AND MORE SWD/SEWD INTO THE
SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY.
...OZARK PLATEAU INTO ERN TX...
PERSISTENT SLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S INTO THE LOWER 60S.
HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK ON SRN/SERN SIDE OF CYCLONIC MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS WHICH WILL EXIST FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH LOWER MO VALLEY. AS SUCH...THESE DATA INDICATE THAT
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL DESPITE THE INCREASING
MOISTURE.
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY FROM
FAR ERN KS AND MO SWD THROUGH ERN OK/WRN AR INTO N-CNTRL AND NERN TX
AS INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVERSPREAD
SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY BEING TO
WHAT DEGREE THE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL MODULATE STORM
INTENSITY. THEREFORE...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED ATTM.
..MEAD.. 11/27/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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