SPC AC 290805
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CST WED NOV 29 2006
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD THROUGH MUCH OF NC...
...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE...NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 90-110
KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL RAPIDLY TRANSLATE NEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY
MORNING. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIANCE EXISTS IN
TRACK OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WITH FARTHER S...SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC GENERALLY FOLLOWED. TRAILING STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AND OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO NC...
VERY STRONG SLY LLJ PRECEEDING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT THE NWD TRANSPORT OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 50S TO PERHAPS
LOWER 60S F FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION /PERHAPS
IN THE FORM OF A MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE LAYER - MAUL/ WILL EXIST
TO SUPPORT A LOW-TOPPED SQUALL LINE ALONG COLD FRONT.
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EVEN WEAK DOWNDRAFT PRODUCTION WILL
RESULT IN SEVERE WINDS REACHING THE GROUND WITH 50-70 KT FLOW AT 1-2
KM AGL. AS SUCH...CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED.
SHOULD MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...AN
INCREASING THREAT OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WOULD EXIST WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
..MEAD.. 11/29/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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