SPC AC 111622
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2007
VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
OVER PARTS OF TX...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NM...WITH DRY
SLOT ROTATING AROUND BASE OF LOW INTO WEST TX. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL TX
THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE WEST FROM MAF SOUTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS BY MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. MID LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER
FORCING OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY FROM
WEST OF ABI - WEST OF SJT WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR. ISOLATED CELLS ALONG THIS LINE MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG HEATING IS
OCCURRING WEST OF DFW AND NEAR THE RED RIVER...WHICH SUGGESTS
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN OK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHER...POTENTIALLY MORE INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE NEAR P07.
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN SJT-DRT. COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY INDICATES THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY
ORGANIZE UPSCALE AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING.
..HART/JEWELL.. 03/11/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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