May 6, 2007 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 6 20:04:17 UTC 2007
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the south central plains this afternoon and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20070506 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20070506 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20070506 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20070506 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 062000
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007
   
   VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL AND
   SWRN KS...WRN OK...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...AND WRN N TX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE OZARKS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND AND NRN
   SD...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL...
   
   ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS REGION...
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER -- CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
   TO LOW 70S -- CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON FROM KS SWD
   ACROSS OK INTO TX...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   STORMS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF KS...AND THEN SWD
   ACROSS FAR WRN OK INTO W CENTRAL TX ALONG N-S SURFACE BOUNDARY. 
   WITH SELY SURFACE WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR BENEATH 40
   TO 60 KT SSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS.  ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS...ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY FROM
   SRN KS SWD ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF OK INTO W CENTRAL TX. 
   
   THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
   
   ...ND/NRN SD...
   BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS -- INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS -- HAVE
   DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL ND...INVOF UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER
   EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY ATTM.  THOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED /AOB 500
   J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ATTM/...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR
   UPDRAFT ROTATION.  THEREFORE...EXPECT THREAT FOR HAIL AND
   LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS A TORNADO OR TWO TO CONTINUE
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
   AND THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING.
   
   ...FL...
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD ACROSS THE FL
   PENINSULA...THROUGH MOIST/MODERATELY-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THIS
   ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY WEAK UPPER FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED
   SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING SWD ACROSS THIS AREA.
   
   THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...MODEST
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- AIDED BY NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 30 KT -- WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND
   LOCALLY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/06/2007
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z