Jun 13, 2007 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jun 13 06:02:14 UTC 2007
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20070613 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20070613 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20070613 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20070613 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 130558
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2007
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL GULF
   COAST INTO THE ERN STATES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN OK AND
   WRN N TX...
   
   ...CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE ERN STATES...
   BROAD CYCLONIC UPR FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ERN STATES ON
   WEDNESDAY...ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF AN UPR LOW NEARLY STATIONARY OFF
   THE NERN COAST.  SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE
   THROUGH THE FLOW AND LIKELY MODULATE CONVECTIVE CHANCES WEDNESDAY
   AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  TIMING OF EACH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSE AND
   DETERMINING WHERE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL
   EVOLVE WILL REMAIN RATHER DIFFICULT.  THIS JUSTIFIES A BROAD
   CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK WITH LATER FCSTS HONING IN ON SPECIFIC AREAS
   ONCE MAGNITUDE OF HEATING AND TIMING OF WAVES BECOME BETTER
   UNDERSTOOD.  
   
   *CNTRL/SRN FL LATE WED MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING*
   ONE OF THE MORE ROBUST IMPULSES...NOW MOVING INTO GA...WILL TURN
   SEWD AND MOVE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
   A BELT OF 40 KT H5 FLOW ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE SEWD
   AND BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  TSTMS
   WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE ECOAST SEABREEZE OVER THE CNTRL
   PORTION OF CNTRL/SRN FL AND BECOME ENHANCED BY THE TROUGH.  LARGE
   HAIL...DMGG WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  MEAN FLOW
   REGIME SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS SRN FL AND OFF THE
   KEYS/SERN FL BY EARLY EVENING.  
   
   *CNTRL GULF COAST REGION WED AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING*
   MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST REGION
   AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARIES/SEABREEZE. 
   MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODESTLY COLD ATOP UPR 60S DEW
   POINTS...SO STRONG STORMS MAY RESULT WITH DMGG DOWNBURST WINDS.
   
   *CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND OH VLY WED MORNING INTO LATE AFTN*
   CYCLONIC FLOW...COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
   THE REGION WED.  STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MID/UPR OH VLY AHEAD OF AN IMPULSE MOVING SWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
   AND ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WWD INTO THE REGION. 
   OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG/W OF A
   BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST.  STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...NNELY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REGIME AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
   WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND
   GUSTS. 
   
   ...PLAINS...
   UPR LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD WEDNESDAY
   WITH PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS CONFINED TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NRN
   ROCKIES.  A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY EWD...REACHING WRN MN
   SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WED AFTN.  GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND MOIST
   PROFILES...SVR RISKS ASSOCD WITH TSTMS VCNTY THIS FRONT WILL BE
   MINIMAL.  ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN OK INTO WRN
   N TX DOWNSTREAM OF MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALL AXIS.  MID LEVEL
   DRYSLOT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR LOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INSOLATION AND
   MORE ROBUST STORMS MAY DEVELOP WED AFTN/EVE OVER THESE AREAS WITH
   HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.
   
   ..RACY/JEWELL.. 06/13/2007
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z