Jun 13, 2007 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jun 13 12:34:09 UTC 2007
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20070613 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20070613 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20070613 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20070613 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 131230
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0730 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2007
   
   VALID 131300Z - 141200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
   WESTERN OK AND NORTHWEST TX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
   NY/PA SOUTHWARD INTO FL...
   
   HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
   STATES THIS MORNING...WITH NARROW UPPER RIDGE RUNNING FROM THE
   WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO TX AND UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE ROCKIES AND
   THE EAST COAST.  ANOTHER DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG
   THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
   AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...FL...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL GA MOVING
   SOUTHWARD.  RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTH
   OF THIS LOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...PROVIDING
   FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. 
   MORNING CLOUDS WILL DELAY DAYTIME HEATING SOMEWHAT...BUT
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
   BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   THE MAIN THREAT.  HOWEVER...COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
   ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ...EASTERN STATES...
   NORTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY FROM NEW
   ENGLAND INTO PARTS OF TN/GA AND THE CAROLINAS.  POCKETS OF STRONG
   DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG AND PROMOTE
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WEAK UPPER FORCING AND LACK OF
   FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAKES PINPOINTING AREAS OF GREATER
   THREAT VERY COMPLEX.  HOWEVER...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
   LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN NY AND PA DOWN THE EAST SLOPES
   OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GA.  MODEL
   GUIDANCE IS LESS CERTAIN OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER OH AND KY.  ALL
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ...OK/TX...
   WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
   INTO WEST TX THIS MORNING.  DRY MID LEVEL AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND LOW
   INTO WESTERN OK.  THIS SUGGESTS A PLUME OF RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES
   WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER
   2500 J/KG AND MINIMAL CAP.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
   DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. 
   HIGH CAPE VALUES AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS
   CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..HART/JEWELL.. 06/13/2007
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z