Oct 2, 2007 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Oct 2 12:56:10 UTC 2007
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20071002 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20071002 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20071002 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20071002 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 021252
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007
   
   VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLNS INTO THE MID
   MS VLY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF AK/NE PAC THIS PERIOD AS
   
   RIDGE LINGERS OVER MEXICO.  SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER CO/WY...
   EMBEDDED IN FAST WLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM PAC TROUGH...WILL ASSUME A
   SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CONTINUES E/NE ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS
   TODAY...AND ACROSS UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
   ELSEWHERE...SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
   CONTINUE SLOWLY WWD.
   
   AT LWR LVLS...COLD FRONT WITH CO/WY SYSTEM WILL SWEEP E/SE ACROSS
   THE CNTRL PLNS AND UPR MS VLY TODAY...AND THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY
   AND THE OZARKS TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.  THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME
   NEARLY STATIONARY OVER N TX ON WEDNESDAY.  A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER
   THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NW OK WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT THIS
   EVENING.
   
   ...SRN PLNS INTO MID MS VLY...
   COLD FRONT AND...FARTHER S...PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SHOULD SERVE AS
   THE MAIN FOCI FOR SFC-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING FROM NW TX/WRN OK NE INTO THE MID MS VLY.  OTHER SFC OR
   NEAR-SFC-BASED STORMS MAY EVOLVE ON ERN EDGE OF CURRENT BAND OF
   ELEVATED CONVECTION AS THAT BAND SHIFTS E INTO ERN KS/MO AND SRN IA
   LATER TODAY.
   
   AFOREMENTIONED BAND OF ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIMIT LOW-LVL
   DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NRN PART OF SLIGHT RISK AREA.  BUT
   COMBINATION OF FAIRLY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   EJECTING UPR IMPULSE...SUBSTANTIAL /40-45 KT/ DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...
   30+ KT LOW-LVL SHEAR...AND LINEAR UPLIFT ALONG FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW
   FROM CURRENT CONVECTION WILL CREATE SETUP FAVORABLE FOR A BROKEN
   BAND OR TWO OF STORMS.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN A FEW BOWING
   SEGMENTS AND/OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES DESPITE WEAK LOW TO MID
   LVL LAPSE RATES.
   
   FARTHER SW...IN WAKE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION BAND...GREATER SFC
   HEATING EXPECTED OVER WRN OK INTO NW.  REGION WILL BE FAIRLY FAR
   REMOVED FROM STRONGER ASCENT/DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH.  BUT GIVEN ENHANCED LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION AND CONVERGENCE
   INVOF COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTERSECTION...IN ADDITION TO
   PROXIMITY OF HI LVL SPEED MAX/DIFFLUENCE MAX...SETUP COULD YIELD A
   FEW SUSTAINED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS
   WITH HIGH WIND AND HAIL.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO
   SMALL CLUSTERS THAT MOVE E/SE BEFORE WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   ...FL...
   S TO SELY LOW LVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE FL PENINSULA TODAY
   AS SUB TROPICAL LOW CONTINUES WWD.  ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN TROPICAL
   MOISTURE NWD...SFC HEATING AND...POSSIBLY...INCREASING HI-LVL FLOW
   WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
   STORMS.  MODERATE LOW-LVL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL
   EXIST...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL AND NRN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA INVOF
   DIFFUSE BOUNDARY STALLED NE/SW ACROSS REGION.  SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW
   STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AND/OR A DMGG WIND GUST
   OR TWO.
   
   ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 10/02/2007
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z