SPC AC 050731
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2007
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
MN...WI...UPPER MI...CENTRAL AND ERN IA...NWRN IL...AND NRN MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION SSWWD INTO OK...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH -- ACCOMPANIED BY INTENSE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
-- WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS
AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EWD...UNSEASONABLY DEEP SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS MN INTO ONTARIO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHARP/TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHILE MOVING MORE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SERN MO/NRN AR/SERN OK/N TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY SSWWD INTO OK/N CENTRAL TX...
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECAST...AS UNSEASONABLY-INTENSE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD BECOMES
JUXTAPOSED WITH A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- MAINLY
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE ONGOING WITH THESE STORMS...THOUGH MUCH OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN/LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING.
WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS FORECAST AHEAD OF FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD 1500 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. BY MID AFTERNOON...HEATING COMBINED WITH
LOW-LEVEL UVV INVOF FRONT SHOULD ALLOW CAP TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY
FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT -- FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO NWRN
MO/NERN KS. MORE ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN KS AND INTO CENTRAL AND ERN OK AND
PERHAPS N TX.
THOUGH INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PREVIOUS
DAY...THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER...AS 100 KT
SWLY H5 JET STREAK REMAINS JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT AND 60 TO 80 KT FLOW SPREADS EWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR. AS A
RESULT...STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLS...THOUGH STORM MODE
MAY TREND TOWARD SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN COMPLEX/BOWING LINES
WITH TIME -- PARTICULARLY FROM NRN MO/IA NWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE
FORECAST. STORMS/SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDWEST
THROUGH 08/12Z.
..GOSS.. 06/05/2007
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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