SPC AC 071955
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008
VALID 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX TO SRN LAKE MI...
...SOUTHERN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONVECTION IS SLOWLY
DEEPENING ALONG WRN FRINGE OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM SERN
KS...SWD INTO SERN OK. ADDITIONALLY...LIGHTNING IS NOW BEING
OBSERVED WITH UPDRAFTS OVER SERN KS/SWRN MO ALONG NERN NOSE OF
STEEPEST LAPSE RATE PLUME. LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
WILL BE SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE SUPPORT. HOWEVER...LATER
THIS EVENING LLJ SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY...APPROACHING 70KT...WHICH
WILL FOCUS FROM NERN TX INTO SRN MO BY 06Z. NEEDLESS TO SAY...SHEAR
PROFILES ARE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION AND SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS EVOLVE AFTER DARK. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS GIVEN THE FORECAST STORM MOTIONS APPROACHING 50KT.
...NRN IL/SERN WI...
FARTHER NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY
FROM NERN MO...NEWD INTO NWRN IL ALONG NARROW RIBBON OF WARM
ADVECTION WHICH TRAILS EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BUOYANCY ACROSS
THIS REGION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...SBCAPE TO 1000
J/KG...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL SHEAR...SFC-1KM OF 30-35KT...IS QUITE
INTENSE. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE ACROSS THIS AREA WILL DO SO
WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION. TORNADO
THREAT IS HIGHER ACROSS THIS REGION THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WILL
ADJUST OUTLOOK ACCORDINGLY.
..DARROW.. 01/07/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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