Jan 10, 2008 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 10 16:26:15 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southeastern u.s this afternoon and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20080110 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20080110 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20080110 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20080110 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 101603
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1003 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008
   
   VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF EASTERN MS...NORTHERN
   AND CENTRAL AL AND MIDDLE TN...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM  SRN LA EWD TO FL
   PANHANDLE NWD TO KY...
   
   POTENT S/WV TROUGH CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD TO ACROSS OH
   VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD AS 100KT 500MB WIND MAX RED RIVER VALLEY SRN
   OK MOVES TO MO BOOTHEEL BY THIS EVENING.
   
   SURFACE LOW SWRN MO ATTM DEEPENS AND MOVES TO LOWER OH VALLEY THIS
   EVENING AS 50-60KT LLJ IS RAPIDLY INCREASING GULF MOISTURE AND
   INSTABILITY NWD ACROSS LOWER MS INTO TN VALLEYS.
   
   SHEAR PROFILES BECOME VERY STRONG AND FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY
   STRETCHES SWWD THRU SRN AR INTO ERN TX.  IN EARLIER OUTLOOKS THE
   PRIMARY LIMITATION FOR A TORNADO THREAT WAS HOW MUCH HEATING AND
   CORRESPONDING INSTABILITY WOULD BE AVAILABLE.  MODELS APPEAR TO BE
   DEFICIENT IN SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.  CURRENT
   OBSERVATIONS AND BREAKS NOTED IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SUPPORT
   TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AT LEAST INTO CENTRAL AL AND MID 60S
   MIDDLE TN.  THUS MLCAPES TO AT LEAST 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY
   MID AFTERNOON NWD TO CENTRAL AL ALONG WITH LITTLE CINH.
   
   WHILE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG ASCENT WRN
   TN INTO MS...MORE DISCRETE STORMS ARE LIKELY BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON 
   EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR INTO NRN/CENTRAL AL AND MID TN.  LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ALONG WITH APPROACH OF 100KT 500 MB WIND MAX
   SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THERE IS A
   POSSIBILITY OF STRONG /LONG TRACK TORNADOES IF DISCRETE STORMS
   DEVELOP. DISCRETE STORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED INTO SRN MS AND THESE
   SHOULD PERSIST WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL AS THEY TRACK NEWD.
   
   A MORE LINER MODE SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING HOWEVER
   POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE AFTER DARK...PARTICULARLY WITH
   ANY SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS AL INTO NWRN GA.
   
   ..HALES.. 01/10/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z