Mar 31, 2008 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 31 06:03:15 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20080331 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20080331 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20080331 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20080331 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 310601
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
   OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST MO/WESTERN AR...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
   THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION EASTWARD ACROSS THE
   PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW SHOULD ADVANCE
   NORTHEASTWARD/GRADUALLY DEEPEN FROM EASTERN KS TOWARD THE WESTERN
   GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
   IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX. WITH THE OK/TX
   DRYLINE AND SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MISSOURI
   VALLEY SERVING AS FOCI...IT APPEARS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
   WEATHER EVENT WILL UNFOLD THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX VICINITY INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.
   
   ...MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND TX INTO MO/SOUTHEAST KS AND THE
   ARKLATEX VICINITY...
   AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   STATES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON
   ACROSS EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO.
   QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY AMIDST 50 KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
   MID LEVEL FLOW...ORIENTED LARGELY NORMAL TO THE EXPECTED DRYLINE
   POSITION FROM EAST CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH TX. WITH WIDESPREAD MIDDLE
   TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
   TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH 1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD SUPPORT A
   FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/. A FEW
   TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY AS WELL ACROSS EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX AND
   THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX VICINITY...OWING TO A RELATIVELY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER AND CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...LIKELY TO BE AIDED
   BY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PROGGED
   TO DEVELOP NEAR THE RED RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...EASTERN IA/MUCH OF IL INTO SOUTHERN WI/WESTERN INDIANA...
   THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST EXTENT
   ACROSS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
   REGION IS MUCH MORE CONDITIONAL/UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
   OVERALL...THE MODEST NATURE OF THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE ISOLATED/LOWER
   PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT. BUT IN SPITE OF 00Z MODELS/21Z SREF
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTING RATHER MEAGER INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 500 J/KG
   MLCAPE/ INTO EASTERN IA/MUCH OF IL AND SOUTHERN WI/WESTERN
   INDIANA...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW TRACK AND/OR IN VICINITY OF
   NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT. PROVIDED SUFFICIENT HEATING AND AT
   LEAST MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...STRONG FLOW FIELDS WOULD
   SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK...POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS
   NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI.
   
   ..GUYER/SMITH.. 03/31/2008
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z