The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the ozarks and lower mississippi valley into the lower tennessee and lower ohio valleys today through tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 100600 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN OK INTO NERN TX...NRN LA...AR...SERN MO WRN TN AND KY THROUGH SRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOW ROTATING THROUGH UPPER TROUGH BASE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL EJECT NEWD INTO KS EARLY THURSDAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NWD INTO ERN KS AND THE MS VALLEY. COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW SWD THROUGH ERN OK...ERN AND SRN TX THURSDAY MORNING. A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NRN OK EWD THROUGH SRN MO THEN INTO SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AT START OF THE PERIOD. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST...REACHING THE OH VALLEY AND EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD. ...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THURSDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT OVER PARTS OF NRN AR...SRN MO WWD INTO NRN OK AND SRN KS...AND THIS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY. NWD ADVECTION OF MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY FROM ERN TX...ERN OK...THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF SRN MO. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY...WHILE A STRONG SWLY MID LEVEL JET LIFTS NEWD ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG BULK SHEAR AND LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS IN DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES AND SHIFTS NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE LOW LEVEL JET TO SHIFT NNEWD AWAY FROM THE STRONGER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT WILL RESIDE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ERN TX. GIVEN TRAJECTORY OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE WARM SECTOR. THE CURRENT 00Z THURSDAY OBSERVED RAOBS SHOW EVIDENCE OF AT LEAST A MODEST EML OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. THESE FACTORS COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR AWAY FROM EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...A FEW DISCRETE CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND CAP WEAKENS DURING THE DAY. TORNADO POTENTIAL WOULD BE HIGHEST IF CELLS MANAGE TO DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR. OTHERWISE...LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CNTRL TX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EAST INTO ERN OK AND NERN TX EARLY THURSDAY...THEN INTO THE MS VALLEY LATER IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE. SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES. ...ERN KS THROUGH NRN MO...SRN IA... MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT AND THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT NEWD THROUGH ERN KS AND THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION EAST OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR TRIPLE POINT OVER ERN KS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES AND AS EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET LIFTS NWD THROUGH THIS REGION. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. ..DIAL/HURLBUT.. 04/10/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z