May 10, 2008 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 10 12:14:11 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms are expected from the arklatex and mid south region eastward across the gulf coast states today and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20080510 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20080510 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20080510 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20080510 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 101210
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0710 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008
   
   VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ARKLATEX AND MID SOUTH
   REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
   THE SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND NWD TO LOWER OH
   VALLEY...
   
   ....WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES EXPECTED
   FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS GULF STATES AND WRN TN VALLEY...
   
   
   A COMPLEX AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION WILL
   DEVELOP TODAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM FROM THE ROCKIES AND
   POWERFUL LATE SPRING UPPER JET LEAD TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
   PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTRAL U.S BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE FROM ERN TX
   ACROSS GULF STATES TO THE S OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM NRN GA TO
   SRN AR.
   
   PRECEEDING THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH A MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL
   QUICKLY CROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND ENHANCE BOTH LIFT AND SHEAR FOR
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON VICINITY WRN
   PORTION OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN
   PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND STRONG HEATING...MLCAPES WILL
   RAPIDLY CLIMB TO ABOVE 2500 J/KG. BY MID AFTERNOON MUCH OF THE WARM
   SECTOR S OF FRONT WILL BE RIPE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 
   SUPERCELLS INCLUDING BOTH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE MOST
   LIKELY AHEAD OF THE WIND MAX VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE SRN AR.  60-70KT
   OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL CREATE
   CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS INCLUDING THREAT OF
   STRONG TORNADOES. ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD
   UNDER THE STRONG JET MAX ACROSS MS/AL TO GA TONIGHT. THIS COMPLEX
   COULD EVOLVE INTO A DERECHO TYPE SYSTEM WITH AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE
   POTENTIAL. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
   MORE ORGANIZED THREAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON
   GIVEN THE AVAILABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
   
   AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS THE DEEPENING PROCESS OVER ERN KS THIS
   AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD NEWD ACROSS LOWER
   MO INTO LOWER OH VALLEYS.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY
   DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXPENDING
   SWD INTO ERN OK/NRN TX.  VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE
   AND UPPER LOW FORECASTED TONIGHT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AT LEAST A
   FORCED SQUALL LINE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS THAT
   WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
   
   THE TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS AREA WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF
   DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR AND HOW FAR N.  GFS IS INDICATING
   THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR BOTH VERY DAMAGING WINDS
   AND TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES RAPIDLY EWD DRIVEN
   BY THE 100KT 500MB WIND MAX ROTATING AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW ACROSS
   NRN MO. HAVE SHIFTED BOTH THE MDT/SLGT RISK AREAS SIGNIFICANTLY NWD
   TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED GREATER INSTABILITY.
   
   ALONG WITH THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WILL 
   ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE POSSIBLY AS FAR E AS LOWER OH AND WRN TN
   VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT.
   
   GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY/INTENSITY OF THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND
   AVAILABILITY OF UNSTABLE GULF AIR...THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS EXPECTED TO
   SEE A LARGE AREA AFFECTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING THE
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..HALES/JEWELL.. 05/10/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z