May 13, 2008 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 13 13:38:10 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20080513 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20080513 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20080513 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20080513 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 131334
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0834 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008
   
   VALID 131300Z - 141200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM N TX INTO CNTRL/ERN OK AND
   PARTS OF SE KS/SW MO AND WRN AR...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLNS/OZARKS INTO
   THE MID MS VLY...
   
   CORRECTED TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE E THIS PERIOD...WITH FURTHER EVOLUTION
   TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.  THE SRN MEMBER...NOW CLOSING OFF OVER
   SRN UT...SHOULD DROP S INTO AZ LATER TODAY BEFORE TURNING E INTO SRN
   NM EARLY WEDNESDAY.  THE NRN MEMBER NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD
   REMAIN AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CONTINUES E TO THE UPR GRT LKS/UPR MS VLY.
   
   
   AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT NOW OVR THE UPR MS VLY/CNTRL PLNS WILL
   CONTINUE E/SE TO A WRN MI/SE MO/NE TX/SW TX/SE NM LINE BY 12Z
   WEDNESDAY.  S OF THE FRONT...DRY LINE SHOULD EXTEND SSW FROM N CNTRL
   OK INTO S CNTRL TX THROUGH THE DAY.  THE FEATURE WILL BE OVERTAKEN
   BY THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OK AND N TX...AND MAY RETREAT W ACROSS 
   CNTRL AND S TX TONIGHT.
   
   ...SRN PLNS/OZARKS INTO MID MS VLY...
   BLENDED PW DATA SHOW RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.25/ NOW IN PLACE FROM
   SRN OK SWD INTO CNTRL AND E TX.  BROAD SSWLY LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT
   CONTINUED NWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO SE KS AND SRN/CNTRL MO
   THROUGH THIS EVENING.  COUPLED WITH MODERATE WSWLY MID LVL FLOW
   AHEAD OF WRN STATES TROUGH AND STRONG SFC HEATING...SETUP WILL YIELD
   A THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
   SVR STORMS BY LATE IN THE DAY.  DEPENDING UPON DETAILS OF CONVECTION
   INITIATION RELATED TO STOUT EML CAP...BOUNDARY LOCATIONS AND
   STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW CORRIDORS
   OF FAIRLY CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY AMIDST MORE WIDELY SCTD EVENTS.
   
   SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS MAY PERSIST FROM PARTS OF MO AND AR INTO
   IL...WRN KY AND PERHAPS WRN TN THROUGH THIS AFTN...ALONG ERN EDGE OF
   ELEVATED MOISTURE ADVECTION.  THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF STORM
   DEVELOPMENT.  AS DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING
   ENHANCE LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION...A FEW STRONGER/ POSSIBLY SVR
   STORMS WITH HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DMGG WIND COULD EVOLVE.
   
   A MORE SIGNIFICANT SVR THREAT LIKELY WILL DEVELOP LATE TODAY THROUGH
   THIS EVENING AS CAP WEAKENS INVOF SE-MOVING COLD FRONT... INITIALLY
   FROM SE KS/WRN MO INTO CNTRL OK...AND POSSIBLY SWD ALONG DRY LINE
   INTO N TX AS CAP IS LOCALLY BREACHED.  STRONG HEATING AND MOISTENING
   BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD YIELD SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH
   SBCAPE POSSIBLY REACHING 3000 J/KG FROM CNTRL OK INTO CNTRL TX...AND
   2000 J/KG AS FAR N AS SE KS.
   
   ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY...WIND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN/BECOME
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS FROM TX/OK NE INTO THE MID MS VLY AS BROAD
   CURRENT OF SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT...40-50 KT WSWLY MID-LVL FLOW PERSISTS
   AHEAD OF WRN TROUGH.  COUPLED WITH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND QUALITY
   OF MOISTURE INFLOW...THE STORMS COULD YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND.  A THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR
   TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LONG-LIVED/MORE DISCRETE STORMS THAT
   MIGHT FORM ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE.
   
   TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO BANDS OR
   CLUSTERS THAT MOVE/DEVELOP E/SE AR...SE OK AND CNTRL/E TX. 
   ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY INVOF
   RETREATING DRY LINE IN CNTRL OR NW TX AS UPR LOW EDGE E INTO NM AND
   COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWD.  WHILE THE OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD
   SLOWLY DECREASE...SOME THREAT LIKELY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF
   THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF TX AND AR.
   
   ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/13/2008
   
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