May 17, 2008 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 17 20:02:11 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20080517 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20080517 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20080517 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20080517 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 171958
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008
   
   VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...GREAT LAKES REGION/UPPER OH VALLEY...
   MID LEVEL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTS...CURRENTLY
   TRACKING ESEWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TO NRN MN...WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING AS THESE FEATURES REMAIN PROGRESSIVE.  INSTABILITY IS
   QUITE MEAGER DUE TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. 
   HOWEVER...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /H5 VALUES OF -22 TO -28C/
   ATOP SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATES. 
   THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS.  THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES SINCE
   THE WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE REPORTS.
   
   ...SERN NM AND ADJACENT PARTS OF W TX...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A COMPACT CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED
   OVER WEST CENTRAL TX MOVING SWWD.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS TREND WILL
   CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME MORE SWD AND SEWD
   TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES.  ASCENT
   ATTENDANT TO MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE WRN AND ERN
   PERIPHERIES OF THIS UPPER FEATURE COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
   WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
   THE EARLY EVENING.  WIND PROFILERS AND WSR-88D VWP DATA INDICATED
   STRONGER N-NELY MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM ERN INTO SRN NM. 
   THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME STORM
   ORGANIZATION.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK /MUCAPE AOB 500
   J/KG/...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /H5 AROUND -16 C/ AND SURFACE
   HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN STEEP LAPSE RATES.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A
   THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL.  GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH
   STILL ISOLATED...IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS...GIVEN
   INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS/INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE. 
   THIS OUTLOOK HAS ADDED LOW SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES TO ACCOUNT FOR
   AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST.  TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
   THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING/STABILIZATION.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/17/2008
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z