May 19, 2008 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 19 19:52:12 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20080519 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20080519 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20080519 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20080519 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 191948
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0248 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008
   
   VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...ERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA...
   MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING SWD INTO NERN SD WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CORN
   BELT THIS EVENING.  TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND
   MAY GROW STRONGER AS THEY APPROACH AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY A
   COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPE.  LARGELY NW UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME
   AND INVERTED-V TYPE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP MAY BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO APPROACH SVR LIMITS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS THE
   PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   ...LWR OH VLY...
   ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN ERROR WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   FIELDS THIS AFTN...MINOR CONTRIBUTIONS FROM EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAVE
   BEEN NOTED VIA METEOGRAMS UPSTREAM ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU/SRN
   PLAINS.  AS SFC LOW OVER CNTRL MO TRACKS TOWARD THE LWR OH
   VLY...CONCOMITANT INCREASE IN A WSWLY LLJ WILL PROVIDE AREA OF WARM
   ADVECTION ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS MS RIVER INTO KY/TN LATER
   TODAY.  WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OF 8C/KM LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
   VEERING SHEAR PROFILES THE ONLY LIMIT ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   BE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  THUS...ONLY ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND
   GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.
   
   ...HIGH PLAINS...
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS IN NWLY FLOW CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID/LATE
   AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HEATING.  GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
   HOWEVER...MLCAPES SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED...GENERALLY LESS THAN
   300 J/KG.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/19/2008
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z