May 23, 2008 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 23 20:04:17 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern plains this afternoon and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20080523 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20080523 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20080523 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20080523 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 232000
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008
   
   VALID 232000Z - 241200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NEB...WRN
   KS...CNTRL KS AND NE CO....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...NRN HIGH PLAINS AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES EXPECTED THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
   
   ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY AS
   THE EXIT REGION OF AN IMPRESSIVE 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX
   REMAINS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
   LOW...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
   RESULT IN A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
   CLUSTER OF TORNADOES SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA WITH
   SOME STRONG TORNADOES.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 996 MB SFC LOW OVER CNTRL CO WITH BACKED
   SFC WINDS ACROSS NEB...NRN KS AND NE CO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD
   FROM THE LOW TO NEAR GOODLAND KS WITH A DRYLINE SWD ACROSS SW KS. A
   MOIST AXIS EXISTS FROM CNTRL KS EXTENDING NWWD INTO NW KS WHERE
   MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. FURTHER NORTHWEST IN FAR
   NE CO AND SRN NEB...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE
   AFTERNOON. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
   RESULT IN SCATTERED STORM INITIATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT BY 22Z TO
   23Z FROM NE CO SEWD ACROSS WCNTRL KS. REGIONAL PROFILERS AND WSR-88D
   VWPS ALONG THIS ZONE SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM
   SHEAR VALUES IN THE 60 TO 80 KT RANGE SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   THE DOMINANT MODE OF CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   PROFILES SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS A
   LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS CNTRL KS AND SRN NEB. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS AT 00Z IN WCNTRL KS SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH
   VALUES AROUND 300 M2/S2 WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG
   TORNADOES. SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
   DOMINANT SUPERCELLS THAT CROSS THE WARM FRONT IN WCNTRL KS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXPAND SWD ACROSS CNTRL KS AS
   ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS INITIATE THERE EARLY THIS EVENING. STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MLCAPE VALUES IN
   THE 4000 TO 5000 J/KG RANGE SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE
   HAIL WITH THE THREAT EXTENDING SWD INTO NW OK. THE AMOUNT OF
   INSTABILITY MAY HELP THE SEVERE THREAT TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
   PERIOD.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AS AN
   IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS NRN BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. STRONG
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN
   CA THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LA BASIN
   ACROSS THE SRN DESERTS OF CA SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND
   COLD AIR ALOFT WHICH MAY SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT WITH ROTATING STORMS
   THAT DEVELOP.
   
   ...MISSOURI...
   A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SCNTRL MO AND
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG AND NORTH OF
   THE BOUNDARY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN
   THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO MID-LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT
   FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
   ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ..BROYLES/KIS.. 05/23/2008
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z