Jun 3, 2008 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 3 16:42:15 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected from missouri eastward into ohio later today and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20080603 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20080603 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20080603 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20080603 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 031639
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1139 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008
   
   VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO E INTO SRN OH...PARTS OF
   NRN KY AND WRN WV......
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HI PLAINS EWD
   TO THE APPALACHIANS......
   
   CORRECTED THUNDER LINES
   
   ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS 13Z OUTLOOK PRIMARILY SHIFTING THE GREATEST
   THREAT FOR ORGANIZED DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOS SOMEWHAT SWD.  ONGOING
   SEVERE MCS/BOW ECHO MOVING RAPIDLY ESEWD FROM CENTRAL IL WILL BE THE
   NEAR TERM CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS BOW MOVING AT 50 PLUS KT
   REACHES NRN KY/SRN OH BY MID AFTERNOON.  WITH MLCAPES THIS AREA AOA
   1500 J/KG DEVELOPING INTO THIS AREA AND VERY STRONG VEERING SHEAR
   PROFILES BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. MDT HAS
   THUS BEEN ADDED TO PORTIONS OF NRN KY INTO WRN WV.
   
   ALSO HAVE EXTENDED THE MDT RISK A LITTLE FURTHER W TO THE KS/MO
   BORDER.  BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING MCS WILL TRAIL WWD ACROSS NRN MO
   FOCUSING INITIATION OF SUPERCELLS. WITH MLCAPES IN WARM SECTOR AOA
   3000 J/KG...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 50KT OF DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR..BOTH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
   SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IN THIS
   ENVIRONMENT.
   
   OTHERWISE THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION FROM THE 13Z DY1 COVERS THE
   OVERALL SITUATION WELL.
   .................................................................
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ACTIVE SVR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
   SEASONABLY STRONG WSW FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CNTRL U.S. ON NRN
   PERIPHERY OF FLATTENED TX/NWRN GULF UPR RIDGE.  DEVELOPING
   WARM/QSTNRY FRONT FROM THE CNTRL PLNS ENE TO THE UPR OH VLY WILL BE
   THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF ACTION...WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE BOTH THE SRN
   AND NRN STREAMS MODULATING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  A SFC WAVE WILL
   TRACK FROM ERN KS TO NRN IND ALONG THE EVOLVING FRONT...SUPPORTED IN
   PART BY SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW ENTERING CO.
   
   ...MID MS INTO OH VLY...
   ONGOING TSTM CLUSTERS FROM IA/NRN MO ESE INTO THE OH VLY WILL
   TEMPORALLY RETARD NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
   BUT SUSTAINED/DEEPENING WSWLY LOW LVL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW EFFECTIVE
   BOUNDARY TO EXTEND FROM NRN MO ESE INTO ERN KY BY LATE IN THE
   DAY...WHILE A SEPARATE FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH IN
   QUEBEC/ SETTLES S ACROSS NY/ONTARIO TO ABOUT THE PA BORDER/LK ERIE.
   
   ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS ARE PARTLY ELEVATED AND WILL CONTINUE TO
   ENCOUNTER LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC AIR THAT AT LEAST IN SOME AREAS
   WAS AFFECTED BY EARLIER OVERNIGHT ELEVATED MCSS /REF MCD #1175/.
   NEVERTHELESS...WHILE AREA RAOBS DID NOT WELL SAMPLE INFLOW
   ENVIRONMENT...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE LIKELY EXISTS TO POSE A
   CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR HAIL/WIND THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
   
   
   
   A GREATER SVR THREAT LIKELY WILL EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH
   TONIGHT FROM NRN/CNTRL MO E INTO IL/IND AS HEATING IGNITES SFC-BASED
   STORMS ALONG WARM/QSTNRY FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING
   ACTIVITY.  THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
   OH VLY LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.  INCREASING MOISTURE /SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 70/ BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME PARALLELING
   WSWLY MID-LVL JET WILL YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH
   2000-2500 J/KG SBCAPE EXPECTED IN IL/IND...AND VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG
   IN MO.  AT THE SAME TIME...50-60 KT WLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP 30-40 KT
   SWLY LLJ WILL RESULT IN 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
   
   GIVEN KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC SETUP...SUSTAINED SEMI-DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY.  THESE WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
   WIND...ESPECIALLY IN MO/IL.  AND...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR BACKED
   SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT...AS WELL AS NEAR NE KS/NW MO SFC
   WAVE...ENLARGED LOW-LVL HODOGRAPHS MAY FOSTER LOW-LVL STORM
   ROTATION/TORNADOES.  WITH TIME...HOWEVER...THE CONCENTRATION OF
   STORMS ALONG A NEARLY LINEAR AXIS OF ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENSIVE WSW-ENE-ORIENTED MCS FROM MO TO OH.
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT
   FOR SVR WIND/HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
   MOVES/DEVELOPS E INTO PA/WV AND POSSIBLY NRN MD EARLY WEDNESDAY.
   
   ...PLAINS STATES...
   SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS/COOL AIR SURGES MOVING GENERALLY S ACROSS THE
   CNTRL AND NRN PLNS WILL BE FOCI FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.  OTHER
   STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO/WY AND WRN
   SD...AND AHEAD OF NRN STREAM UPR LOW IN ND.  GIVEN RESIDUALLY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG SFC HEATING...STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
   RATES...AND MODERATE CYCLONIC MID/UPR FLOW...THE STORMS WILL INCLUDE
   SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO SUSTAINED BANDS/MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
   
   UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS PRODUCING STRONG TO SVR
   WIND/HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  ONE CORRIDOR MAY INCLUDE ERN
   WY/SRN SD AND NEB AS A MOIST SELY LLJ STRENGTHENS...WITH ANOTHER
   OVER KS AND PERHAPS NRN OK...BENEATH SRN STREAM JET.
   
   ...UPR TN VLY/SRN APLCNS SSE TO CAROLINAS/GA/FL...
   MORNING RAOBS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SERN
   U.S. TODAY.  25-40 KT NWLY MID-LVL FLOW EXTENDING SE INTO WRN
   CAROLINAS/NRN GA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM
   ORGANIZATION WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DMGG WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE LARGELY
   DIURNAL STORMS.
   
   ..SELECT A FORECASTER.. 06/03/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z