Nov 5, 2008 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 5 19:33:16 UTC 2008
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...significant severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the parts of northern oklahoma and southern kansas later this afternoon and early tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20081105 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20081105 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20081105 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20081105 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 051929
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0129 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008
   
   VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN OK AND SERN KS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NCNTRL TX TO SERN SD...
   
   ...ERN PLAINS/MS VALLEY...
   
   WRN EDGE OF WARM SECTOR MOISTURE PLUME IS BEGINNING TO
   DESTABILIZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHERE SFC
   TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S.  LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA
   INDICATES A NARROW AXIS OF 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE NOW EXISTS WITHIN
   SLIGHTLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM NWRN TX...NWD INTO NCNTRL OK. 
   LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS REGION OF DESTABILIZATION ALONG ERN
   EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME AS BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD IS
   BEGINNING TO EXPAND AND DEEPEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN OK.  WITH
   TIME IT APPEARS PARCELS WILL REACH THEIR LFC AND THUNDERSTORMS
   SHOULD EVOLVE.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
   APPROACHING SPEED MAX THAT IS DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS NRN NM.  LARGE
   SCALE FORCING SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AS NEXT
   SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ENHANCE UPWARD
   GROWTH OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK/KS.  NEEDLESS
   TO SAY SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE
   MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  THE PRIMARY LIMITING
   FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE AT THIS TIME IS THE NARROW
   AXIS OF INSTABILITY.  EVEN SO SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE
   NEXT 2-4 HOURS THEN SPREAD QUICKLY NEWD INTO NERN OK/SERN KS WHERE
   BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR
   POTENTIAL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG.  WITH TIME A
   SQUALL LINE SHOULD EVOLVE AND ADVANCE EWD AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH
   MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.  FARTHER NORTH...MEAGER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
   COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH BUOYANCY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   ALONG NRN PORTIONS OF COLD FRONT ACROSS NEB INTO ERN SD.  LINEAR
   DEVELOPMENT IS THE MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODE...THOUGH EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY FIELD GIVEN
   THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 11/05/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z