SPC AC 080742
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CDT TUE APR 08 2008
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/MID SOUTH
INTO PORTIONS OF MO/IL/KY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS...
...ARKLATEX/MID SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS...
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLATEX/MID SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF MO/IL/IND THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/LONG-TRACKED. LATEST 00Z
BASED MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY CONVERGE ON THE DETAILS
OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY REFLECTED IN DEEPER ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS. WHILE
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY
DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/CORNBELT.
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OK/TX INTO MO/KS/AR. WHILE THIS EXPECTED ACTIVITY
COMPLICATES THE MESOSCALE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...ADDITIONAL SURFACE
BASED/SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK/ARKLATEX VICINITY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD FROM OK/AR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
DAY...RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTHWARD ACROSS MO/IL/IND. VERY STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE...WITH 100+
KT AT 500 MB AND 50-70 KT AT 850 MB...WILL FAVOR BOTH SUPERCELLS
AND THE EVOLUTION OF QUASI-LINEAR BOW ECHOES ACROSS A BROAD PORTION
OF THE ARKLATEX/MID SOUTH NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO
VALLEYS. EITHER WITH QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OR THE EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF LEWPS...A HIGH SRH ENVIRONMENT AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG/LONG TRACKED. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.
..GUYER.. 04/08/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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