Jan 3, 2009 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 3 05:50:16 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20090103 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20090103 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20090103 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20090103 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 030546
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 PM CST FRI JAN 02 2009
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SE TX INTO A PORTION OF
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   ...SE TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...
   
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MEXICO-TX BORDER WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
   CONTINUES EAST INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. SRN BRANCH OF THE LOW
   LEVEL JET INITIALLY OVER ERN TX EARLY SATURDAY WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY. MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE
   ALREADY SPREAD INTO THE SE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND SRN LA. THIS
   MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ADVECT FURTHER NWD THROUGH LA AND SRN MS ALONG
   THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. WSWLY FLOW ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
   LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD
   THROUGH SE TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY ABOVE THE NWD EXPANDING MOIST
   AXIS. THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL BE
   TEMPERED BY THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND EARLY CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT WITHIN ZONE OF LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH.
   
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS STORMS BY 12Z ALONG DEVELOPING WARM
   CONVEYOR BELT NEAR THE CNTRL AND SE TX COAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
   EXPAND NE INTO LA BY LATE MORNING...CONTINUING ENE DURING THE DAY.
   GIVEN LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DIABATIC HEATING DUE TO THE EARLY ONSET
   OF DEVELOPMENT...STORMS COULD BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT BASED CLOSE
   ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND. LOW LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A
   THREAT OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
   TWO. 
   
   POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM
   OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM ERN TX...FARTHER NORTH INTO LA WITHIN ZONE OF
   DPVA AND LIFT EAST OF VORT MAX. INITIAL THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL PROBABLY BE LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...IF SUFFICIENT HEATING
   DEVELOPS...STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME SURFACE BASED AND POSE A
   RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THREAT IN ERN
   TX IS MORE CONDITIONAL GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF A STRONGER CAP AND
   TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER FORCING TO SHIFT EAST OF THIS REGION
   BEFORE SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS. THE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
   OVERNIGHT AS ZONE OF FORCING ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NE
   OF INSTABILITY AXIS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/03/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z