Jan 8, 2009 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 8 12:38:11 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20090108 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20090108 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20090108 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20090108 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 081234
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0634 AM CST THU JAN 08 2009
   
   VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS UNDERWAY AS MID LEVEL
   TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TRANSLATES EWD TO THE WRN ATLANTIC...AND
   AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM WA/ORE TO THE NRN
   GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES.  ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE ERN CONUS TROUGH...SPECIFICALLY AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING ESEWD FROM KY TO NC AND A SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE
   ACROSS ERN NC THIS EVENING...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE
   SENSIBLE/LATENT HEAT FLUXES FROM THE GULF STREAM MORE STRONGLY
   DESTABILIZE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE.  LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
   PLAINS WILL INDUCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO S TX BY
   TONIGHT...BUT THE MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BENEATH VERY WARM MID LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES AND A RESULTANT CAP.  THE ONLY APPRECIABLE THUNDERSTORM
   THREAT TODAY WILL BE FOCUSED FROM ERN ORE INTO SW ID ALONG THE PATH
   OF THE PAC NW/NRN GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   
   ...ERN ORE/SW ID THIS AFTERNOON...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RECENT SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS AGREE THAT
   THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE WA/ORE COASTS WILL MOVE
   ESEWD TO THE NRN GREAT BASIN BY THIS EVENING.  CONDITIONALLY
   UNSTABLE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE MID LEVEL
   THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY
   ACROSS ORE/ID IN THE IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THIS
   AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THIS AREA SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
   MUCAPE TO REACH 100-200 J/KG WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMPERATURES
   COLDER THAN -20 C.  THESE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
   OF AT LEAST ISOLATED LIGHTNING PRODUCTION IN THE MORE VIGOROUS
   CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF MID LEVEL DCVA
   DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 01/08/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z