SPC AC 021612
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST MON FEB 02 2009
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL
PENINSULA...
...FL...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW OVER REGION. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COMPACT BUT STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW...HELPING TO SLOWLY MOISTEN AIRMASS AND LOCALLY
ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT RATHER
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS AOB 63F/ WILL KEEP
MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG TODAY.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE
PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE MORE PERSISTENT STORMS
MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED
TORNADOES. PRIMARY MITIGATING FACTORS TO A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT
WILL INCLUDE THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND VEERING LOW LEVEL
WINDS WITH TIME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES.
..HART.. 02/02/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
|
