SPC AC 070527
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST FRI FEB 06 2009
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN CA THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN AZ...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SSEWD THROUGH SRN CA TODAY...BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN EWD...REACHING AZ SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL VORTICITY
MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE NORTH OF A STRONG MID LEVEL
JET LOCATED ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WITH -24C TO -26C AT 500 MB WILL SUPPORT 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. AREAS OF ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY
MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING SEWD THROUGH SRN CA DURING THE DAY. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR A FEW CLOUD BREAKS AND MODEST WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER NORTH OF THE UPPER JET AXIS WHERE THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. MUCAPE COULD APPROACH 400-500 J/KG OVER SRN CA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF UPPER JET
AXIS FOR A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WHERE 40+ KT BULK SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT ROTATION WITHIN A FEW UPDRAFTS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK WITHIN CORE OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO SRN AZ SATURDAY
NIGHT.
..DIAL.. 02/07/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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