SPC AC 091628
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CST MON FEB 09 2009
VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF IA AND MO...
IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MO VALLEY TODAY. AN INTENSE
LOW-TOPPED SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST NEB INTO WESTERN
MO...AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE
LIMITS. DESPITE NEAR ZERO CAPE AND NO DETECTABLE
LIGHTNING...POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR ISOLATED GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG THE LINE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.
BEHIND THIS INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION...STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING
OVER KS. THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULT
IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN KS...SOUTHEAST
NEB...AND SOUTHWEST IA. LATEST SURFACE TRENDS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL
DRYING AND VEERING OVER KS. THESE FACTORS ARE RESULTING IN A
LOWERED CONFIDENCE THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAN REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST AN INCREASING MID
LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL FURTHER LIMIT THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES OF
HAIL/WIND/TORNADOES IN THIS REGION IN THE EVENT THAT A STORM OR TWO
CAN OVERCOME STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND BECOME SUPERCELLULAR.
..HART.. 02/09/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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