Feb 27, 2009 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 27 12:01:14 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20090227 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20090227 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20090227 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20090227 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 271156
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0556 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2009
   
   VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES...
   
   MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
   ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS.  THIS TROUGH IS HELPING TO
   MAINTAIN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OH...ACROSS PARTS
   OF KY/TN...INTO MS/AR.  NORTHERN/EASTERN EXTENT OF CONVECTION IS
   MOVING INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...TRAILING
   SOUTHWESTERN END OF LINE WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
   THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO MS/AL.
   
   ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
   CURRENT LINE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER KY/TN MAY CONTINUE TO
   POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. 
   HOWEVER...A GREATER RISK IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FARTHER SOUTHWEST
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF AR/LA.  A COMBINATION OF DEWPOINTS IN
   THE MID 60S...STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND COOL TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG. 
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
   AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO MS/AL DURING THE EVENING.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LARGE /POSSIBLY SGFNT/ HAIL IN
   STRONGER CELLS.  SUPERCELL STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...LIKELY
   CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL. 
   
   ...AR OVERNIGHT...
   LATER THIS EVENING...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP
   ACROSS PARTS OF OK/AR AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.  THIS WILL
   LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
   OVERNIGHT.  RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATE WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL
   IN STRONGER CELLS...ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..HART.. 02/27/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z