Mar 28, 2009 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 28 01:04:22 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern plains and lower mississippi river valley through tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20090328 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20090328 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20090328 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20090328 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 280059
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009
   
   VALID 280100Z - 281200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN AR...CNTRL/SRN MS AND
   NRN/CNTRL LA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
   MID-SOUTH AND GULF COAST STATES...
   
   ...MID-SOUTH/GULF STATES...
   STRONG UPR LOW WAS STARTING TO TURN E AND WILL REACH NE TX/SE OK BY
   12Z SATURDAY.  SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 100+ KT H5 JET THAT WILL
   PUNCH EWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH
   OVERNIGHT.
   
   997 MB LOW OVER SE OK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WRMFNT INTO
   SCNTRL AR BY 06Z...THEN INTO NWRN MS BY 12Z.  TRAILING THE LOW...A
   CDFNT/DRYLINE WILL SWEEP EWD...REACHING THE MS RVR BY DAYBREAK.
   
   COMPLEX C0NVECTIVE SCENARIO CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION.  SLY LLJ
   WAS BEGINNING TO RESPOND ACROSS THE SABINE RVR VLY AS THE SFC LOW
   INTENSIFIES.  THIS IN COMBINATION WITH ENHANCED ASCENT TIED TO THE
   APCHG PV-ANOMALY WAS HELPING TO IGNITE BANDS OF TSTMS...BOTH ALONG
   THE BENT BACK PORTION OF THE CDFNT FROM SERN OK INTO FAR E TX AND
   NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM SWRN AR SWD INTO THE SABINE RVR VLY.
   
   FORMER BAND OF STORMS TIED TO THE OCCLUDED LOW/CDFNT WILL MOVE ENE
   ACROSS CNTRL-NRN AR THIS EVENING.  00Z LZK HODOGRAPH WAS SUPPORTIVE
   OF ROTATING STORMS...MAINLY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND RISKS. 
   AIR MASS BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY DRIER THROUGH CNTRL/NRN AR AND IT
   APPEARS THE TORNADO THREATS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   STRONGER POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR EVENT SEEMS TO BE
   UNFOLDING FROM SRN AR/LA EWD INTO MS TONIGHT.  HP SUPERCELLS MOVING
   EWD ALONG THE MARINE WRMFNT IN SRN LA WILL PROBABLY MODULATE NWD
   RETURN OF RICHER THETA-E AIR MASS.  PRIND THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
   EVENTUALLY MOVE NWD INTO PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SRN MS AND PERHAPS WRN
   AL AS THE UPSTREAM SLY LLJ BROADENS AND INCREASES OVERNIGHT ACROSS
   THE CNTRL GULF COAST.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS CORRIDOR WILL
   UNDERGO SUPERCELL TO BOW TRANSITIONS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL
   AND TORNADOES /A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/.
   
   FARTHER N...SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MUCH OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS
   SRN AR AND NRN LA REMAINED COMPARATIVELY COOL TODAY AND 00Z SHV
   SOUNDING BEARS THIS REALITY WITH REDUCED CAPE.  HOWEVER...VERY
   STRONG DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MAY
   COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT.  LLVL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED MODEST /MID-60S/
   ACROSS THIS REGION...SO PRE-FRONTAL STORMS WILL REMAIN STG-SVR AS
   THEY MOVE ENE ACROSS SRN AR...NRN LA AND INTO WCNTRL MS LATER
   TONIGHT.  WHILE DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD BACKS WITH TIME...SUPPORTING
   LINEAR SEGMENTS...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL BE
   DISCRETE WITH THE HIGHER TORNADO POTENTIAL.  OTHERWISE...AS THE LINE
   MOVE EWD...CONSIDERABLE DMGG WIND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AS THE 100+
   KT H5 JET NOSES ACROSS THE REGION.  ALSO...THIS EVENING...STRONGER
   CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE
   STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES.
   
   ..RACY.. 03/28/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z