SPC AC 151629
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT WED APR 15 2009
VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS REGION...
AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE DIGGING ESEWD
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER CO ALONG AMPLIFYING N-S ORIENTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS SLOWLY CONTINUING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY REGION OF TX INTO THE SOUTH TX HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH MOISTENING SPREADING NNWWD INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
STRENGTHEN ALONG LEE TROUGH. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE
INTO THE 40S INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH -- WHILE MODEST -- SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND EWD ADVECTION OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT TO RESULT IN MARGINAL
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION ATOP A DEEP MIXED LAYER.
MODELS INCREASE MOIST CONVECTION AND HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HEATING AND SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE MAY STILL
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS
THIS REGION...SHEAR SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS/MID-LEVEL ROTATION WITH ANY PERSISTENT UPDRAFT. WHILE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ANY STORMS
WHICH DO FORM COULD BECOME RELATIVELY VIGOROUS/LOCALLY-SEVERE.
ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL...GUSTY WINDS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN EVAPORATIVE POTENTIAL IN THE DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. ANY
THREAT WOULD LIKELY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
..EVANS/HURLBUT.. 04/15/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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