May 3, 2009 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 3 16:46:24 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the eastern gulf states this afternoon....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic
20090503 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20090503 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20090503 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20090503 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 031629
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CDT SUN MAY 03 2009
   
   VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ECNTRL MS TO WCNTRL GA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
   SERN TX TO SC...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
   ATLANTIC...
   
   ..GULF STATES...
   
   MATURE AND INTENSE MCV AND ASSOCIATED DERECHO IS MOVING ACROSS MS AT
   ROUGHLY 60KT AND WILL SOON MOVE INTO AL BEFORE APPROACHING THE GA
   BORDER BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
   DAMAGING WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE BOWING LINE OF CONVECTION INTO AL
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   DRAPED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF APEX. DOWNSTREAM...AIR MASS EAST TO
   GA/SC SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE GIVEN DIURNAL HEATING AND
   EXPECT THIS INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE TO FUEL INTENSE STORM UPDRAFTS
   ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ADVANCING COLD POOL AND
   ALONG THE SOUTHERN TRAILING EDGE OF THIS COMPLEX WHERE LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
   
   WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ASCENT AND STRONG SHEAR.
   
   00Z WRF-NMM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FORECAST WAS ABOUT 3H TOO SLOW
   WITH MCS EVOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTH. WHEN MODEL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
   
   TO CURRENT TIME AND COMPARED WITH LATEST MOSAIC RADAR ACROSS
   MS/AL...THE SIMILARITIES ARE QUITE REMARKABLE. USING THAT
   GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE EAST
   ACROSS GA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS TO OUTRUN
   LARGE SCALE SUPPORT.  EVEN SO...MESOSCALE VORT WILL LIKELY BE
   MAINTAINED WITHIN THIS COMPLEX...POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
   POTENTIAL EAST INTO SC.
   
   TRAILING PORTIONS OF MCS WILL EXTEND WSWWD...JUST NORTH OF IMMEDIATE
   GULF COAST...FROM SRN MS INTO SERN TX.  ONGOING E-W BAND OF STRONG
   STORMS MAY BEGIN TO SAG SWD LATER IN THE DAY AS COLD POOL NUDGES
   BOUNDARY TOWARD THE COAST.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY A
   FEW STORMS.
   
   ..CARBIN/KERR.. 05/03/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z