Jun 2, 2009 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 2 01:03:19 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20090602 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20090602 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20090602 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20090602 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 020059
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2009
   
   VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY WWD TO THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   ...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING FROM CENTRAL IL E/SEWD THROUGH IND AND
   OH.  REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER WRN/NWRN OH
   WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXTENDING WWD THROUGH CENTRAL IND/IL TO THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS.  SRN EXTENT OF STRONG WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
   ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH 40-50 KT AT H5 ATOP 20-30 KT WSWLY LLJ
   INTO THIS REGION.  THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
   PER 00Z ILX/ILN SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF ONGOING TSTMS AND MID LEVEL
   DRYING PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPREADING EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY
   SHOULD ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
   EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT THIS EVENING ACROSS OH SUGGESTING
   A DECREASE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...STORMS ACROSS IL/WRN IND
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE FED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY PER WSWLY LLJ. 
   THUS...THESE LATTER STORMS COULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   EVENING.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO IA/NRN MO...
   STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
   INCREASE LOW LEVEL WAA WITH STORMS TENDING TO DEVELOP/SPREAD MORE
   NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH AT 00Z EXTENDED FROM NRN MO TO
   FAR NRN KS.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ELEVATED MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 30-35 KT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A 
   CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING AND
   POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
   CENTER LOCATED OVER NM SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS FROM ERN
   CO/WRN KS AND SWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE...PRIOR TO THE LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING STABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  UNTIL THEN... LARGE
   TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT
   FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACROSS W TX
   THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WAA WHICH MAY MAINTAIN
   STORMS ACROSS THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY IN THE SRN
   TX PANHANDLE.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO WRN OK/NW PART
   OF NRN TX WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS.
   
   ...SC/SRN NC...
   LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL FURTHER STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER/INCREASE SURFACE BASED INHIBITION RESULTING IN A DIMINISHING
   TREND OF THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  UNTIL THEN...STORM
   MERGERS ACROSS CENTRAL SC/SRN NC...GENERALLY FROM AIKEN COUNTY SC TO
   HOKE COUNTY NC...WITHIN A RESIDUAL MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
   SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. 
   ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE
   PRIMARY THREATS IN THE SHORT TERM.
   
   ...FAR NRN CA/WRN ORE...
   DECREASING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   ADDITIONAL TSTMS/SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THIS
   EVENING.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/02/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z