SPC AC 020059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2009
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY WWD TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...
...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING FROM CENTRAL IL E/SEWD THROUGH IND AND
OH. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER WRN/NWRN OH
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXTENDING WWD THROUGH CENTRAL IND/IL TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SRN EXTENT OF STRONG WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH 40-50 KT AT H5 ATOP 20-30 KT WSWLY LLJ
INTO THIS REGION. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
PER 00Z ILX/ILN SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF ONGOING TSTMS AND MID LEVEL
DRYING PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPREADING EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY
SHOULD ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT THIS EVENING ACROSS OH SUGGESTING
A DECREASE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...STORMS ACROSS IL/WRN IND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY PER WSWLY LLJ.
THUS...THESE LATTER STORMS COULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING.
...CENTRAL PLAINS TO IA/NRN MO...
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL WAA WITH STORMS TENDING TO DEVELOP/SPREAD MORE
NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH AT 00Z EXTENDED FROM NRN MO TO
FAR NRN KS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ELEVATED MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 30-35 KT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER LOCATED OVER NM SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS FROM ERN
CO/WRN KS AND SWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE...PRIOR TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING STABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UNTIL THEN... LARGE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACROSS W TX
THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WAA WHICH MAY MAINTAIN
STORMS ACROSS THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY IN THE SRN
TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO WRN OK/NW PART
OF NRN TX WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS.
...SC/SRN NC...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL FURTHER STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER/INCREASE SURFACE BASED INHIBITION RESULTING IN A DIMINISHING
TREND OF THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. UNTIL THEN...STORM
MERGERS ACROSS CENTRAL SC/SRN NC...GENERALLY FROM AIKEN COUNTY SC TO
HOKE COUNTY NC...WITHIN A RESIDUAL MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT A FEW ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 02Z.
ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY THREATS IN THE SHORT TERM.
...FAR NRN CA/WRN ORE...
DECREASING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL TSTMS/SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THIS
EVENING.
..PETERS.. 06/02/2009
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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