Jun 7, 2009 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jun 7 05:52:23 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20090607 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20090607 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20090607 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20090607 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 070547
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1247 AM CDT SUN JUN 07 2009
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS...SERN
   NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
   NRN OK TO SRN WI...
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...
   
   EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT AND
   ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER
   CO RIVER VALLEY OF SRN NV/CA.  BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST MID
   LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT ACROSS NRN
   NM BEFORE SHIFTING INTO KS BY LATE AFTERNOON...ENHANCING SEVERE
   POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD
   OF FRONTAL ZONE.  PRIOR TO THIS DEVELOPMENT...AN EARLY MORNING MCS
   WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
   LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.  THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY
   ENHANCE ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT ACROSS IA AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   BECOMES DRAPED ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER INTO SRN NEB WHERE IT SHOULD
   INTERSECT SURGING COLD FRONT.  NAM IS A BIT FARTHER SE WITH COLD
   FRONTAL POSITION OVER KS AT 00Z THAN GFS AND THIS SEEMS MORE
   REASONABLE GIVEN THE AIRMASS OVER THE NRN PLAINS ATTM.
   
   LATEST THINKING IS AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS OVER THE MID MS
   VALLEY...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL PROVE CONVECTIVE-FREE OVER THE CNTRL
   PLAINS AS SFC PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED PRIOR TO MID-LATE AFTERNOON. 
   VERY STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
   SCNTRL KS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE
   WELL INTO THE MID 90S.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG NERN
   PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WHERE PARCEL RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE
   MAXIMIZED ALONG ZONE OF STRONG CONVERGENCE.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL KS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC
   LOW THEN TRACK/DEVELOP NEWD INTO INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG.  GIVEN THE APPROACHING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...UPDRAFTS SHOULD ORGANIZE QUICKLY WITH SUPERCELLS
   THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE.  VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY MANY
   OF THESE STORMS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH CAPE. 
   ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER NERN KS INTO
   SERN NEB/NWRN MO ALONG DECAYING OUTFLOW WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST SFC-3KM HELICITY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 300 M2/S2 OVER THIS
   REGION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE MDT RISK REGION...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ INCREASES INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING HOURS.  SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS ERN KS/NEB
   INTO IA/NRN MO DURING THE LATE EVENING...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC
   LOW.  ONE OR MORE MCS-TYPE COMPLEXES SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID MS
   VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS MCS MATURES.
   
   ...ELSEWHERE...
   
   ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG
   DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TX AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
   NEAR 100F.  HIGH BASED CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL.
   
   A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
   FL.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS
   WITHIN MARGINAL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR MICRO
   BURSTS ARE THE THREATS WITH THIS DIURNAL ACTIVITY.
   
   ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 06/07/2009
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z