SPC AC 080100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2009
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SE NEB...SW IA...NW MO
AND NE KS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...
...CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY/UPPER MS VALLEY...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-MO VALLEY.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LIKELY VERY FOCUSED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG
AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OVER ERN KS AND NW MO IS SUPPORTING
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF INTENSE SEVERE STORMS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE
LOCATED ON THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER SCNTRL IA. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EWD MAINTAINING A SEVERE THREAT INTO WRN IL
AND SRN WI THIS EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER WEST...A BOWING-LINE SEGMENT IN NW KS IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND THIS LINE SHOULD BE SUSTAINED EWD AS
THE TROUGH EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. MODEL
FORECASTS DRIVE THIS STORM COMPLEX EWD INTO THE MODERATE RISK AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS MAKES SENSE DUE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD
FUEL THE STORM CLUSTER EWD. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP THE MODERATE
RISK AREA IN PLACE. SOME SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR AS THE
BOWING LINE-SEGMENT INTERACTS WITH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY IN NERN
KS LATE THIS EVENING.
...SRN PLAINS...
SEVERAL SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING FROM SRN KS SSWWD INTO
WEST TX ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. REGIONAL PROFILERS
SUGGEST 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 KT ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...THE DYER AIR FORCE BASE WSR-88D VWP SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF
FLOW BELOW 1 KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE BECOMING MARGINAL.
..BROYLES.. 06/08/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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