SPC AC 260031
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2009
VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL PLAINS...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A
PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NNEWD FROM NM ACROSS CO AND
WRN KS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN THIS PLUME ALONG A WELL-DEFINED
COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN KS EXTENDING WWD INTO ERN CO. THE LATEST RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN
KS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY OVER NCNTRL KS. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.5 C/KM ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR
SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE INTENSE CELLS THIS EVENING. PROFILERS IN CNTRL KS HAVE 20-25 KT
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. FOR THIS REASON...EXPECT THE SEVERE THREATS TO REMAIN
ISOLATED AND DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING.
...SE TX...
SEVERAL INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN ERN TX ALONG
AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ANALYZED BY THE RUC. THE STORMS ARE
LOCATED ALONG A MOIST AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S
F. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE ESTIMATED BY THE RUC AROUND
7.5 C/KM SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EARLY THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 08/26/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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