Sep 8, 2009 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 8 01:04:16 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20090908 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20090908 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20090908 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20090908 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 080100
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT MON SEP 07 2009
   
   VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
   SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE FROM SRN NEB SSWWD INTO TX/NM...THE
   STRONGEST OF WHICH REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  WHILE DIURNAL
   STABILIZATION SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AN
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY PROVIDE BOTH AMPLE ASCENT FOR STORMS TO
   CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE AMBIENT SHEAR
   SUCH THAT A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
   EVENING.
   
   FARTHER N...CONVECTION HAS YET TO DEVELOP INVOF THE COLD FRONT NOW
   EXTENDING FROM NRN ND SWWD INTO WY.  LOW-LEVEL CAPPING PER EVENING
   RAOBS COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS
   THAT ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED. 
   THUS...WHILE ANY WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH...CONDITIONAL
   THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
   PENDING STORM INITIATION -- WHICH SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION AS
   40-PLUS KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ...TN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION AND VICINITY...
   A GENERAL DECREASE IN CONVECTION IS FORECAST THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL
   LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION SLOWLY OCCURS.  IN THE MEAN TIME...A FEW
   STRONGER STORMS CONTINUE OVER SRN KY...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...AND INTO
   NRN AL.  WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR -- AIDED BY 25 KT
   WNWLYS AT MID LEVELS...A LIMITED/LOCAL THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND MAY
   PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   ...COASTAL NC...
   COMPACT SURFACE LOW CONTINUES MOVING NNEWD ALONG/JUST OFF THE NC
   COAST...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE OUTER BANKS REGION OVERNIGHT. 
   EVENING MHX /MOREHEAD CITY NC/ RAOB -- IN THE NRN QUADRANT OF THE
   LOW -- DEPICTS VERY MINIMAL MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ATOP A WEAKLY
   STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  WHILE THIS SUGGESTS ONLY WEAK/DISORGANIZED
   UPDRAFTS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EVIDENT IN THE RAOB AND IN MHX WSR-88D
   VWP REVEAL LOW-LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION
   WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT.  WHILE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
   LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SUCH AN UPDRAFT...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL
   2% TORNADO PROBABILITY ACROSS COASTAL NC.
   
   ..GOSS.. 09/08/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z