Sep 22, 2009 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 22 12:32:17 UTC 2009
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20090922 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20090922 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Torndao Legend Image
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20090922 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Wind Legend Image
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20090922 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Hail Legend Image
   SPC AC 221228
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0728 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009
   
   VALID 221300Z - 231200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SRN TX INTO THE MID SOUTH/MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
   AXIS OF RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES AHEAD OF STRONG SFC COLD FRONT NOW
   ADVANCING ESEWD FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
   WEST OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PERSISTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. 
   PWS FROM 1.75-2 INCHES /UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S F SFC DEW POINTS/ ARE IN
   PLACE WITHIN THIS AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TX COAST NWD INTO THE
   LOWER OH/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS AT DAYBREAK...AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR
   MUCH OF THE DAY.  DESPITE THE RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOW AND DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODEST AS STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NEAR DEEP
   CLOSED LOW OVER STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN
   PLAINS.  HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 20-30 KT MAY STILL SUPPORT
   BRIEF ORGANIZED STORMS AS ACTIVITY INCREASES DURING THE DAY WITH
   AFTERNOON HEATING...GIVEN EXPECTED MODERATE INSTABILITY.  ISOLATED
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER CORES ACROSS THIS
   REGION...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TEMPERED BY
   WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED SHEAR.
   
   ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 09/22/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z