SPC AC 311252
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2009
VALID 311300Z - 011200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY EXTENDING NWD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST BE NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
DEAMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS EWD TOWARDS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD TO THE FL
PANHANDLE WILL SLIDE EWD OFF THE E COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
...FL PANHANDLE/SRN GA/SC...
CONVECTIVE BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING OVER THE
SERN U.S. WILL ENCOUNTER A MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 70 DEG F AS PUSHES EWD TODAY. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY /500 J/KG MLCAPE/ AHEAD OF
FRONT BUT POOR PRE-FRONTAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED THIS
MORNING WITH 500MB TEMPS ONLY -3 TO -4 DEG C WILL PROBABLY IMPEDE
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACHIEVING CHARGE SEPARATION. THUS WILL NOT
INCLUDE 10 PERCENT TSTM PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..SMITH.. 10/31/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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