SPC AC 291249
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
VALID 291300Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...AZ/NM INTO SWRN TX...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ESEWD ALONG THE
MEXICO-AZ/NM BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL COLD POCKET
CHARACTERIZED BY H5 TEMPS AOB -24C WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK
HEATING...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT AS
MOIST CONVECTION INCREASES ESEWD INTO SWRN TX.
...ERN HALF OF TX INTO THE MID SOUTH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
PLUME OF FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT AT DRT/CRP THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND EXTEND NEWD TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LOW. BROAD AREA OF MODEST LOW
LEVEL WAA WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AND WILL ENHANCE ASCENT AHEAD OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ADVANCE QUICKLY SEWD INTO THIS REGION
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITHIN AN EXPANDING AREA OF ELEVATED MOIST
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD FROM
SRN TX INTO THE MID SOUTH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF THE UPPER
TX/LA COAST AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS WITH RECOVERING AIR MASS OVER
THE GULF...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OVERALL WEAK
INSTABILITY AND ONLY MODEST SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE
THREAT.
..EVANS/GRAMS.. 11/29/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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