SPC AC 260511
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN NEW ENGLAND...
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY AS LLJ IN EXCESS OF 60KT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION...SOME
OF IT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND
SUGGEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN TO AROUND 7 C/KM...WHICH
WILL YIELD MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG IF LIFTING A
PARCEL IN THE 600-650 MB LAYER. THOUGH LOW LEVELS WILL STRUGGLE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO BUOYANCY IT APPEARS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY PROVE
ADEQUATE FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
..DARROW.. 12/26/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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